The best prediction markets right now
Kalshi is the best prediction market for most US users: the largest CFTC-regulated exchange, with sports, politics, the economy and weather in one app. The right pick still depends on what you trade and where you live, so these are our picks by need, with the fact that decides each one.
| Best for | App | Why |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | Kalshi | About 80% of all US prediction market volume, and sports, politics, the economy and weather in one app |
| Welcome offer, no code | DraftKings Predictions | $150 in bonuses when you trade $5 |
| Politics and news | Polymarket US | Deep political markets, and limit orders earn a rebate |
| Inside a brokerage app | Robinhood | Kalshi and ForecastEx contracts next to your stocks, up to $0.02 a contract |
| Pregame sports | Novig | No fee on pregame straight trades |
| Economics | Interactive Brokers | Kalshi, ForecastEx and CME contracts, plus a 3.38% yearly coupon on ForecastEx positions |
| Crypto holders | Crypto.com Predictions | Fund with cash or crypto on Crypto.com’s own exchange |
| Free practice | Manifold | Play money only: no real money in or out |
How prediction markets work
A prediction market lets you buy yes or no contracts on a real event. Each contract pays $1 if your side is right and nothing if it is wrong, so its price, from 1¢ to 99¢, is the market’s estimate of the chance: a yes contract at 62¢ means about 62%.
You trade against other people, not against a house. The exchange matches your order with someone who takes the other side, and the price moves as traders buy and sell. Yes and no prices add up to about $1, so if yes costs 62¢, no costs about 38¢.
- 1.Pick a market and read its rules.Each market says which source settles it and when, for example the official box score or the Labor Department’s jobs report.
- 2.Choose yes or no and a price.A market order buys at the best price on offer now; a limit order waits for the price you set.
- 3.Pay the contract price plus the fee.The app shows the total before you confirm.
- 4.Sell early or hold to the result.You can sell at the current price at any time to lock in a gain or cut a loss.
- 5.Collect $1 per winning contract.The cash lands in your balance once the market settles, ready to trade or withdraw.
Worked example: buying yes at 62¢
Say a team’s yes contract trades at 62¢ and you buy 100 contracts on Kalshi. This is what you pay and what you get back in each case.
| Step | Amount |
|---|---|
| 100 yes contracts at 62¢ | $62.00 |
| Kalshi fee: 0.07 × 100 × 0.62 × 0.38, rounded up | $1.65 |
| Total cost | $63.65 |
| If yes: 100 contracts × $1 | $100.00 back, $36.35 profit |
| If no | $0 back, $63.65 lost |
| Sell early at 80¢ (fee $1.12) | $78.88 back, $15.23 profit |
The fee moves your break-even from 62% to about 63.7%: the outcome has to happen more often than that for these trades to pay over time. On a 95¢ favorite the same formula costs only $0.34 per 100 contracts, but the most you can make is $5 before it.
Prediction market prices as sportsbook odds
If you know sportsbook odds, the conversion is direct: the price is the implied chance, and a $100 stake buys as many $1 contracts as it covers.
| Price | Implied chance | Sportsbook odds | Profit on $100 if right, before fees |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10¢ | 10% | +900 | $900 |
| 25¢ | 25% | +300 | $300 |
| 50¢ | 50% | +100 (even) | $100 |
| 62¢ | 62% | −163 | About $61 |
| 80¢ | 80% | −400 | $25 |
| 90¢ | 90% | −900 | About $11 |
No code needed: $100 in bonuses at FanDuel Predicts
Trade $1 or more on five days and get $100 in bonuses, $20 at a time. The offer runs until October 20, 2026, in 18 states, including California, Texas and Florida.
18+ · Real-money trading · T&Cs apply
Prediction market fees compared
Fees are where the apps differ most. Exchanges such as Kalshi and Polymarket US use a formula that peaks at 50¢ and shrinks toward 1¢ and 99¢, brokers charge a flat amount per contract, and ProphetX and PredictIt take a share of your profit instead. The last column works each app’s published schedule out for our example trade: 100 contracts bought at 62¢.
| App | How the fee works | 100 contracts at 62¢ |
|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 0.07 × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up to the cent | 0.07 × 100 × 0.62 × 0.38 = $1.65 |
| Polymarket US | Takers pay 0.0695 × contracts × price × (1 − price); makers get 0.0125 × the same back | $1.64 for takers; makers earn $0.29 |
| Novig | No fee on pregame straight trades; live takers pay 0.03 × price × (1 − price), futures 0.06 | $0 pregame; 0.03 × 100 × 0.62 × 0.38 = $0.71 live |
| ProphetX | 2% of your net gains in each market | $38 profit × 2% = $0.76 if you win; $0 if you lose |
| Robinhood | Commission of 10% × price × (1 − price), capped at $0.01 a contract, plus an exchange fee of up to $0.01 | $1.00 commission + up to $1.00 = up to $2.00 |
| DraftKings Predictions | $0.02 a contract each time you buy or sell between 30¢ and 94¢, less outside that range, all fees in | 100 × $0.02 = $2.00, again if you sell early |
| Interactive Brokers | From $0.01 a contract | From 100 × $0.01 = $1.00 |
| Crypto.com Predictions | A per-contract fee that rises with the contract value | See its fee table |
| FanDuel Predicts, Coinbase, Webull | No formula published; the app shows the fee before you confirm | Shown at checkout |
| PredictIt | 10% of the profit on each winning contract | $38 profit × 10% = $3.80 if you win |
Three costs sit outside this table. The spread: if the best offer is 63¢ and the best bid 60¢, buying and selling at once loses 3¢ a contract, $3 per 100, more than any fee above, so post a limit order on thin markets. Card deposits: Kalshi charges 2% and Novig 3%, while a bank transfer is free at both. And selling before the result is a second trade with a second fee.
Price matters as much as the app. On a 90¢ favorite Kalshi charges $0.63 per 100 contracts while DraftKings Predictions charges $2.00; on a 20¢ long shot the two are closer, $1.12 against $1.49.
Exchange or broker: which should you use?
An exchange runs the market itself; a broker gives you access to someone else’s. Kalshi, Polymarket US, Novig, Crypto.com, Underdog, OG.com and ForecastEx run CFTC-regulated exchanges. Robinhood, Webull, Coinbase, Interactive Brokers, DraftKings Predictions and FanDuel Predicts are futures brokers that route your trades to exchanges such as Kalshi, CME Group and Crypto.com, so the same market can appear in several apps at different fees.
Pick an exchange for the widest choice of markets and the deepest order books. Pick a broker if you already keep money there or want a welcome offer: DraftKings Predictions, FanDuel Predicts, Webull and Interactive Brokers all give one without a code.
Sports, politics and economics markets
Sports are the biggest category and the one states fight over; politics, the economy and weather trade on the same exchanges with far fewer legal limits. Which ones you can trade depends on the app.
| Category | What you trade | Where |
|---|---|---|
| Sports | Winners, spreads, totals, player props, futures and parlays | Kalshi, Polymarket US, Novig, ProphetX, Underdog Predict, DraftKings Predictions, FanDuel Predicts, Robinhood |
| Politics | Elections, control of Congress, policy decisions | Kalshi, Polymarket US, Interactive Brokers, Robinhood, PredictIt |
| Economy and finance | Fed rate decisions, inflation, jobs reports, stock index and crypto price ranges | Kalshi, Interactive Brokers, Webull, Gemini Predictions, Robinhood |
| Weather and climate | Temperatures and climate records | Kalshi, Interactive Brokers, Robinhood |
| Culture | Awards, box office, music and TV | Kalshi, Polymarket US, Robinhood |
Sports contracts look like bets but work like trades. Other traders set the price, you can sell before the final whistle, and you pay a fee instead of a sportsbook’s built-in margin. Because the CFTC regulates them, they reach states without legal sportsbooks, such as California and Texas, usually from age 18. The CFTC’s June 10, 2026 proposal would keep moneylines, spreads and player props but would likely bar contracts on injuries, referees and single in-game plays.
Election contracts have been legal on CFTC exchanges since a federal judge ruled for Kalshi in September 2024; the CFTC dropped its appeal in May 2025. Economic markets settle on official data such as the monthly jobs report, and Interactive Brokers pays a 3.38% yearly coupon on ForecastEx positions, which helps on contracts that run for months.
Kalshi vs Polymarket US
Kalshi is the better all-round app; Polymarket US suits politics traders who post limit orders. Both are CFTC-regulated and price contracts the same way, so the choice comes down to markets, fees, funding and where you live.
| Kalshi | Polymarket US | |
|---|---|---|
| Regulated as | CFTC exchange since 2020 | CFTC exchange and clearing house |
| Fee, 100 contracts at 62¢ | $1.65 | $1.64 for takers; makers earn $0.29 |
| Markets | Sports, politics, economy, weather, culture, crypto | Politics, news, sports, culture, crypto |
| Deposits | Bank free; card, PayPal, Venmo 2%; crypto; wire | Debit card, bank, Apple Pay, PayPal, Venmo, USDC, wire |
| Withdrawals | Bank 3–4 business days; debit card in about 30 minutes for $2 | To your deposit method, 3–4 business days, free |
| Tax paperwork | Profit and loss statement; 1099s only for interest and rewards | No tax-form page in its help docs |
| Where | Nationwide, with limits in MA, MI, NV and WA | Not in Nevada; sued by New York in September 2026 |
| iPhone app | 4.8 from 584,000+ ratings | 4.6 from 60,000+ ratings |
Kalshi also sells its contracts through Robinhood, Webull and Coinbase, so you can trade the same markets without a separate account, at those brokers’ fees.
Are prediction markets legal in your state?
Yes under federal law, with a fight over sports. The CFTC regulates these exchanges nationwide, but states say sports contracts are unlicensed betting. The appeals courts have split: the Third Circuit sided with Kalshi, the Ninth and Sixth with the states, and New Jersey has asked the Supreme Court to settle it. Markets on politics, the economy and weather are rarely affected. This is what changed in 2026, newest last:
| Date | What happened | Who it affects |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 7, 2026 | The Third Circuit rules that New Jersey cannot regulate Kalshi’s sports contracts. | Kalshi in New Jersey |
| Jun 10, 2026 | The CFTC proposes rules that keep moneylines, spreads and props but would likely bar injury, referee and in-game props. | Every exchange |
| Jun 29, 2026 | A Michigan judge orders Kalshi to stop sports contracts; a longer injunction follows on September 1. | Kalshi in Michigan |
| Jul 21, 2026 | A Washington judge blocks Kalshi’s sports contracts under the state’s gambling law. | Kalshi in Washington |
| Jul 27, 2026 | A federal judge blocks Minnesota’s new ban days before it was due to start, so Kalshi and Polymarket US keep operating there. | Minnesota |
| Aug 28, 2026 | The Ninth Circuit lets Nevada enforce its gaming law against Kalshi. | Nevada |
| Sep 2, 2026 | New Jersey asks the Supreme Court to hear its case against Kalshi. | Every state, if the Court takes it |
| Sep 9, 2026 | Robinhood stops new sports contracts for Michigan residents. | Robinhood in Michigan |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Connecticut orders nine platforms, including Polymarket, Robinhood, Coinbase and Novig, to stop sports contracts and let residents withdraw. | Connecticut |
| Sep 2026 | Missouri’s attorney general orders Kalshi, Polymarket, Underdog, Robinhood, Crypto.com and Novig to stop. | Missouri |
| Sep 24, 2026 | New York’s attorney general and governor sue Polymarket US as unlicensed gambling. | Polymarket US in New York |
| Sep 25, 2026 | The Sixth Circuit rules that Ohio and Tennessee can regulate event contracts under their gambling laws. | Ohio and Tennessee |
| Oct 2, 2026 | Ohio orders ten platforms, including Polymarket, Robinhood, Novig and Underdog, to stop by October 16. Kalshi is not on the list. | Ohio |
| Oct 2, 2026 | A federal judge bars Illinois from enforcing its 21+ age limit and sports limits on Kalshi and Coinbase. | Illinois |
DraftKings Predictions and FanDuel Predicts work differently: they offer sports contracts only in the 18 states without their sportsbooks, including California, Texas, Florida and Georgia. Open the Details row on any card above to see where that app works.
When an app pauses in your state, it usually stops new trades for people located there, often only for sports. You can normally close what you hold and withdraw your cash: Connecticut’s September orders, for example, told the platforms to let residents take their money out. Read the app’s notice for its deadline rather than waiting.
Deposits and withdrawals
A bank transfer is the cheapest way in and out of every app we checked; cards land instantly but cost 2–3% at Kalshi and Novig. A deposit has to clear before you can withdraw it, and Polymarket US sends every withdrawal back to the method you paid in with.
| App | Deposit with | Cash out |
|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | Bank transfer free; debit card, PayPal and Venmo 2%; crypto; wire from $1,000 | Bank 3–4 business days, free; debit card within 30 minutes, $2 |
| Polymarket US | Debit card, bank transfer (ACH), Apple Pay, PayPal, Venmo, USDC; wire from $5,000 | Back to the method you deposited with; card and bank 3–4 business days, free |
| Novig | Bank transfer and crypto free; cards and Apple Pay 3% | Bank, debit card or Venmo, from $10 |
| Robinhood | From your Robinhood account; instant deposits can’t buy event contracts | Settled cash moves back to your Robinhood balance |
| PredictIt | Bank (ACH) free; one card deposit up to $1,000 free | No withdrawal fee since September 23, 2026 |
Taxes on prediction market winnings
Profits are taxable income, whether or not the app sends you a form. As of July 2026 the IRS had issued no guidance on event contracts, so tax advisers disagree on whether gains are gambling winnings, capital gains or Section 1256 contracts, taxed 60% as long-term and 40% as short-term gains.
The paperwork differs by app. Kalshi gives you a profit and loss statement and sends 1099 forms only for interest and rewards, not for trading profit. Robinhood says it will not provide 1099s for event contracts and gives an annual statement instead. Polymarket US’s help docs don’t describe its tax forms at all.
If your trades count as gambling, a change that starts with the 2026 tax year lets you deduct only 90% of your losses, and only up to your winnings: a trader who wins $10,000 and loses $10,000 still pays tax on $1,000. Save each year’s statements and a record of every deposit and withdrawal, and ask a tax professional before you file.
How to pick a prediction market app
- 1.Check your state first.Sports contracts are paused in some states. Pick your state above our list and we hide the apps that exclude it.
- 2.Match the app to what you trade.Novig, ProphetX and Underdog are sports only; Kalshi and Polymarket US cover almost everything; Interactive Brokers is strongest on economics and climate.
- 3.Price the fee at the odds you trade.Formula fees are cheap on favorites and long shots, flat fees on coin flips; our fee table shows both at 62¢.
- 4.Fund by bank transfer.It is free at Kalshi, Novig and Polymarket US; cards cost 2–3%.
- 5.Look for volume and a tight spread.Busy markets let you buy and sell close to the fair price; a gap of several cents costs more than the fee.
- 6.Take a no-code offer only if you would trade anyway.DraftKings Predictions, FanDuel Predicts, Webull and Interactive Brokers give one; bonus credits are for trading, not withdrawal.
- 7.Check the age.Most apps take you from 18; Novig and Interactive Brokers require 21.
No code needed: $150 in bonuses at DraftKings Predictions
Trade $5 and get $50 in bonuses at once and $100 more over 14 days. Fees are capped at $0.02 a contract, all in.
18+ · Real-money trading · T&Cs apply
Prediction markets vs sweepstakes casinos
Both reach states where online casinos are illegal, but they work in opposite ways. A sweepstakes casino is free to play and pays prizes in Sweeps Coins; a prediction market is real money in and out, on real events.
| Prediction market | Sweepstakes casino | |
|---|---|---|
| What you do | Trade contracts on real events | Play casino-style games |
| Money | Real money in and out | Free coins; buying is optional |
| Free way to play | No (Manifold is play money only) | Yes, always |
| Regulated by | The CFTC (federal) | State sweepstakes law |
| Minimum age | Usually 18 | 18 or 21, by casino |
| Where you can’t use it | Sports paused in some states | 13 states |
Live where sweepstakes casinos are banned? See every option in our alternatives in banned states, or compare mystery box sites.
Risks to know before you trade
- You can lose your whole stake. A contract that settles against you pays nothing.
- Fees and spreads eat small edges. On our 62¢ example the fee alone moves your break-even by almost two points.
- Small markets are thin. Outside big events, prices can jump and you may not find a buyer.
- Markets settle on their written rules. Read which source decides the result and what happens if an event is postponed.
- Access can change overnight when a court or state regulator pauses sports contracts.
- No SIPC cover. Event contracts are not protected like stocks in a brokerage account.
- Bonus credits are for trading only. You withdraw winnings, not the credits themselves.
Set a deposit limit in the app before your first trade. If trading stops being fun, see our responsible play page for free help.
Not available to US players
These come up in other rankings but do not take US customers right now.
| Platform | Why |
|---|---|
| Polymarket (international) | Its crypto order book blocks US users; Americans use Polymarket US instead |
| Limitless | Not launched for US users; it applied to the CFTC in May 2026 |
| Sporttrade | Closed its sports exchange on May 25, 2026, while its prediction market application is pending |